Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
